The WoW community is back to calculating things, as today’s Collector’s Bounty event is dragging the math/statistics majors out!
Collector’s Bounty?
In case you weren’t aware, all of this month is the Greedy Emmisaries event, which brings with it the Collector’s Bounty buff. The buff improves drop chances for Legacy loot (pre-Dragonflight), doubling all transmog drops and drastically increasing mount and legendary drops (with up to 25x increased drops). You can check out all the benefits here. But you’ll definitely want to hunt down whatever mounts or transmog you’re missing!
53 Attempts at (Statistically) Worse
While the event does offer a massive buff to drop rates, it’s not going to be free items dropping everywhere. It is a Diablo-related event, but we’re not quite at D3 levels yet. Brakndawnt took it upon themselves to math out the worst case scenario for individual items to drop.
We know from Blizzard’s recent video short that mount and legendary item buffs got a flat +5% buff to their drops. Using this number, brakndawnt went with the bare minimum of a 5% drop rate, since a lot of these items (especially the legendaries) have a sub-1% drop rate to begin with. And so the calculation is made with the assumption of a flat 5% drop rate, but basically all items have a higher chance (with the worst one coming in at 5.21%).
You can check the full math below, but in the end it comes out to 53 individual runs for a specific item if you’re really unlucky. Technically, it could get worse than that, but if that happens to you you’re simply a statistical anomaly!
You can also check the route for the mounts you’re missing using Simple Armory, as we talked about here.
So, will you go grab some of your long-term sought-after mounts? Are you going for one of the legendaries? And are you feeling luckier than 53 runs?