The fifth week of Mythic+ this season is over, and Nightstalker314 is taking a look at the weekly data from Raider.IO. The previous dungeon event week was followed by a Timewalking week including a raid. So, as expected, the overall numbers decreased by 23.99%. And given the recent start of the WoW Forever Beta in the middle of that week, we could expect another major impact. But available data for regular endgame activity suggests retail players don’t seem to focus on Forever by now. So, let’s look at the details.
Weekly Total Run Performance Compared To Other Seasons
Compared to previous seasons, the drop-off in week 5 is a bit larger than average. But it also follows the trend of TWW S2, which also had a dungeon event in week 4. So far in week 6, the hourly numbers have barely changed. A combination of new characters from last week’s Timewalking stepping into M+ and no other event to draw attention away from it.
The global decline of 23.99% was a combination of a widespread trend across all regions. The US, which also has a much stronger presence in Classic and Hardcore WoW metrics, dropped by 29.55%. Some of those players might have already cancelled plans for week 5 after the BlizzCon announcement. On EU servers, the decline was a bit smaller, at 26.51%. Asian metrics were less drastic. KR dropped by 23.53%, TW by 21.17%, and CN by 19.49%.
When looking at synchronized snapshots throughout weeks 4 and 5, there is an early drop-off for EU and CN after launch. This was always directly tied to early attempts to finish 4 dungeon runs for the event quest (week 4), boosting those M+ metrics. Meanwhile, in week 5, we had a Timewalking week that would reward the Ragnaros kill in Firelands Timewalking and up to 5 dungeon runs with a champion and hero track item. Another factor that would decrease the early metrics. Throughout the rest of the week, there was a small upward trend with slight fluctuation for all three major regions. But specifically during the launch of WoW Forever Beta, 51 hours after the US reset, there didn’t seem to be a big impact.
Weekly Raid Boss Kill Numbers In Comparison
The changes in M+ metrics still seem quite rough, with a drop larger than 20%. Thankfully, RaiderIO also provides raid stats (for Patreon members). So let’s take a look at the weekly metrics for all bosses on normal and heroic, a field where the average player is participating. Early on, normal mode starts with high participation and slightly fewer kills deeper into the raid. In comparison, heroic mode activity has only been increasing until week 5 for most bosses. We can even spot the unlock of the skip towards the final two bosses in week 3. When combining metrics from both modes, we can see a slight overall decrease. But in the individual modes, as well as in their combination, there ain’t a massive change in trend from week 4 to week 5.
Looking at the relative changes for each boss and mode, as well as their combination, week by week, we see quite a stable development for normal mode past week 1. Here, the numbers decline in a regular manner after week 2. And on heroic, the overall trend is also quite stable within the last 2 weeks (4 & 5), while growth (> 100%) remains for most encounters. The combination of both modes is even more solid from week 3 to week 5.
Total Runs Across All Dungeons
Returning back to M+ metrics, we see a slightly larger spread from most to least popular dungeon. Murder Row and Altar of Fangs kept quite a distance from the rest. Ranks 3 to 5 swapped positions, given how close their metrics usually are. And the Blinding Vale dropped below Ruby Life Pools. It is not the most visually pleasing place, and the loot is also rather irrelevant for most specs.
The overall success rate dropped by 0.88 percentage points, mostly tied to the change in affixes. Ascendant remains the worst one in the rotation. Murder Row (92.91%), Kings’ Rest (92.33%), Temple (91.55%), and Voidscar Arena (91.00%) showed the lowest decline. Meanwhile, the lower half got hit even harder by the affix. Den of Nalorakk (89.00%) is already 2 points behind rank 4. Altar (88.28%) and the Blinding Vale (87.99%) both dropped by more than 1 point. And Ruby Life Pools (87.52%) slipped to dead last. The timing of the Ascendant orb spawns can be quite bad in a dungeon with such narrow paths and that much movement.
Split Across All Key Levels
85.25% of all keys were completed at key level 10 and higher. This value is ahead of MN S1, which showed 84.96% for its fifth week. The shift away from key level 10 towards 12 is much more drastic. In MN S2, we had 28.54% (+10) and 21.23% (+12); in MN S1, the split looked quite different, with 35.99% (+10) and 15.39% (+12). Overall total runs declined up to key level 16. The largest drops were happening for the first few levels, up to -52.03% for +2. Most runs for the event quest happened at the low end. But key level +10 also lost 35.92% in terms of total runs. The major shift in relative share happened from +12 upwards. Every key level gained.
The ceiling remained at +22, but activity increased from just 6 keys in week 4 to 69 in week 5. In week 6, we also saw the first +23 key by now. The success rate declined by 0.88 percentage points to 90.21%. It was mostly tied to the affix change. From key levels 5 to 11, all changes were negative compared to week 4. Up to -2.95 points at key level 7. A combination of harder trash that requires more cc and interrupts, and an affix that demands the same is not good. Key levels 12 and 13, on the other hand, improved by 2.92 and 2.34 points. A clear impact of gear progression and the absence of the affix.
Conclusion and Week 5 Forecast
Retail in general wasn’t really affected that much by the WoW Forever Beta start, as we’ve seen in the stability in raid activity. Trends in M+ numbers reflect other trends, like the disparity between M+ and raid loot. Negative feedback for this season mostly includes the forced bonus rolls option from the vault explicitly used in the raid, making M+ pointless besides filling enough slots. Bonus rolls also existed in MN S1, but only after week 4, and players had two rolls for M+ dungeons; clearly a deterioration.
As of this writing, 120 hours after the US reset, the hourly numbers for all major regions have remained rather stable. New characters leveled in the previous week, and there is no extra weekly event for PvE gearing. The US (-0.46%) and EU (+0.10%) servers are hovering around the same values, while Chinese players are a bit more active (+5.36%). We’ll examine this some more in next week’s breakdown.