The fourth week of Mythic+ this season is over, and Nightstalker314 is taking a look at the weekly data from Raider.IO. With a decline of 4.57%, the drop-off this week was slightly smaller than in the previous one. While low and high keys saw a massive increase, the middle, except for vault farming, saw a noticeable decline. The BIS grind in the favored dungeons was also shrinking. So, let’s look at further details.
Weekly Total Run Performance Compared To Other Seasons
The regional decline once again was quite different from the global average of -4.57%. With quite sustained numbers in the previous week, the US dropped the most with -10.40%. The EU was close to the global average with -5.17%. And the Asian servers saw almost no decline (CN -1.55%) or even a positive trend (TW +1.74%, KR +2.34%). Usually, dungeon weeks showed a smaller uptick in the past. But in periods of major decline, they could drop into the negatives.
Compared to the previous seasons, MN S2 is following the general trend. When looking at hourly numbers for the entire week, there was a small lead for the first few days. Players tend to farm four quick M+ runs for their weekly and have less reason to run keys in the final days. The overlap with BlizzCon did not really impact activity that much. And even the current numbers for week 5 don’t seem to be that affected by the WoW Forever Beta start. The official launch, though, might lead to a major drop in week 12. But at that point, general activity is already petering out towards the end of the season.
Total Runs Across All Dungeons
The overall spread across all dungeons has shrunk compared to week 3. There was less interest in farming Murder Row and Altar of Fangs for BIS hero track drops. The order of dungeons also did not change. It will be interesting to see if Altar of Fangs can keep its position once players have gotten their desired items.
Murder Row (93.61%) kept its leading position while increasing the gap from King’s Rest (92.86%) and Temple (92.23%). Voidscar Arena (91.50%) remained almost unchanged, while the distance to the lower half shrank. Den of Nalorakk (89.94%) surpassed Altar of Fangs (89.37%). Ruby Life Pools (89.21%) and Blinding Vale (89.09%) also saw massive improvements. This could be attributed to more experienced PUGs. The distance between best and worst dungeon dropped from 5.06 percentage points in week 3 down to 4.52.
Split Across All Key Levels
81.03% of all keys were completed at key level 10 and higher. A slight decrease from last week due to many quest-related runs in lower keys. The overall share for level 10 keys also fell slightly from 34.67% to 33.90%. But the biggest total losses happened at key levels 9, 11, 13, and 14, up to -20.02%. Levels 2 to 5 saw an increase in total runs by 6.19% to 33.66%. Key levels 12 and upward from 16 were also positive, with 19 to 21 more than doubling their numbers. The first +22s were also timed in week 4, exclusively on Chinese realms. In week 5, all three major regions have seen +22s timed by now.
The overall success rate grew by 0.63 percentage points to 91.09%. This was mostly due to lower keys up to key level 12. Especially levels 7 and 8 stood out with an improvement of more than 2 points. This is quite surprising since Tyrannical first weeks were much more punishing in past seasons. Either boss tuning is a bit easier this time around, or players have yet to get used to major trash pulls in Fortified keys. Higher key levels from 13 to 19 saw a slightly negative trend. Maybe gearing can’t quite keep up with the overall ambitions for higher rating.
Conclusion and Week 5 Forecast
MN S2 is still quite ahead of the previous season. Although this is an easier M+ season, gearing feels worse due to the massive boost for raid loot and raid vault entries. Another solo raid boss in a few weeks might tip the scales even more towards raiding. We’ll have to see if M+ trinkets get more buffs or if Season 3 will find a better balance for gear rewards.
As of this writing, 120 hours after the US reset, the hourly numbers for all major regions have dropped massively. -30.59% for the US, -28.30% for the EU, and -24.16% for CN. Looking at snapshots throughout week 5, there is no clear impact of the Forever Beta launch. This just seems to be the regular drop after a dungeon event week. But we’ll examine the details in the next breakdown.